我国企业协会的覆盖率及其相关制度的再设计

企业协会要行使行业代表、行业管理职能必须具有高的行业覆盖率。由于形成的途经的不同和产业链的细分，我国许多行业中普遍存在着“一业多会”现象，导致了企业协会的覆盖率降低、内耗严重，协会的应有功能无法充分发挥。研究表明：走出“一业多会”困境的出路在于强制入会制度的实施、政府背景的隐退和业务主管部门的取消，以及政府行业管理职能的择优转移和“第三部门”的形成。     

Analysis of marginally specified semi-nonparametric models for clustered binary data

Generalized linear mixed models are widely used for analyzing clustered data. If the primary interest is in regression parameters, one can proceed alternatively, through the marginal mean model approach. In the present study, a joint model consisting of a marginal mean model and a cluster-specific conditional mean model is considered. This model is useful when both time-independent and time-dependent covariates are available. Furthermore our model is semi-parametric, as we assume a flexible, smooth semi-nonparametric density of the cluster-specific effects. This semi-nonparametric density-based approach outperforms the approach based on normality assumption with respect to some important features of 'between-cluster variation'. We employ a full likelihood-based approach and apply the Monte Carlo EM algorithm to analyze the model. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the consistency of the approach. Finally, we apply this to a study of long-term illness data.     

矿物微粉对水泥基混合料抗压强度的影响

为了了解矿物微粉对混凝土性能的影响,利用可压缩堆积模型(CPM)计算了不同体系胶凝材料的堆积密实度,研究了矿物微粉级配及其相对掺量对低水胶比水泥基混合料抗压强度的影响。结果表明,胶凝材料的堆积密实度与水泥基混合料的抗压强度有很强的对应关系;当堆积密实度相差不大而化学效应相差较大时,化学效应越大,抗压强度越大。     

购销广告中的数学学问

本文通过对需求市场的分析，得出人们的潜在购买量随广告费的增加而增大。但实际需求量是随机的。为使问题简化，并做出定量分析，本文假定实际需求量服从均匀分布，并用数学方法确定广告费和购进量的最优值。     

Spatial welfare economics versus ecological footprint: modeling agglomeration,externalities and trade

A welfare framework for the analysis of the spatial dimensions of sustainability is developed. It covers agglomeration effects, interregional trade, negative environmental externalities, and various land use categories. The model is used to compare rankings of spatial configurations according to evaluations based on social welfare and ecological footprint indicators. Five spatial configurations are considered for this purpose. The exercise is operationalized with the help of a two-region model of the economy, that is, in line with the ‘new economic geography.’ By generating a number of numerical ‘counter-examples,’ it is shown that the footprint method is inconsistent with an approach aimed at maximum social welfare. Unless environmental externalities are such a large problem that they overwhelm all other components of economic well-being, a ‘spatial welfare economic’ approach delivers totally different rankings of alternative land use configurations than the ecological footprint.      

Inflation Adjustment and Labour Market Structures: Evidence from a Multi‐country Study*

The impact of labour market structures on the response of inflation to macroeconomic shocks is analysed empirically. Results based on a 20‐country panel show that if labour market coordination is high, the effect on inflation of movements in unemployment, import prices, tax rates and productivity is dampened, both on impact and dynamically. In contrast, monopoly power in labour supply, measured by the percentage unionisation of the workforce, appears to amplify the response of inflation to its reduced‐form determinants. These findings are attributed to the behaviour of wages following movements in demand‐ and supply‐side conditions.     

核地质系统工程产业发展思路

文章根据核地质系统的实际 ,提出实施人才战略、提高队伍素质 ;增加设备投入、壮大自身实力 ;加大经营力度 ,拓展目标市场 ;强化项目管理 ,提高经济效益 ;利用地勘优势 ,发展延伸产业等五条核地质系统工程产业发展思路。     

省域全要素生产率地区差异的动态演进

笔者在运用索洛余值法对我国各地区全要素生产率进行估算的基础上,利用非参数的核密度函数法和马尔可夫链法对全要素生产率地区差异的动态演进进行了分析。研究结果表明,我国各地区全要素生产率差异较大,从东部往西部呈现逐渐降低的梯度分布格局;各地区之间全要素生产率的绝对差距在20世纪80年代呈现缩小趋势,而从1990年以后呈现加速扩大趋势;同时,核密度函数分布呈现双峰收敛趋势,进一步表明全要素生产率两极分化现象严重;从马尔可夫链的稳态分布来看,各地区的全要素生产率将继续保持较大差异,短期内难以实现均衡发展。     

日本核电危机及其影响初步分析

日本核电危机已经产生了严重的后果与广泛影响。基于目前证实的转折性的政府决定、政策、措施,从核电规划、能源政策、核电与气候变化3个视角讨论了核电危机的潜在影响,具体体现在核能发展可能会更加审慎、能源政策中各因素的协调、全球核电复兴趋势可能终结等方面。     

我国三线城市保险业发展水平和综合竞争力的比较分析

随着保险公司在一、二线城市竞争的日趋激烈,三线城市保险业的发展商机已经显现。影响三线城市保险业发展水平和综合竞争力的主要因素包括GDP、人口数量及分布、城镇居民人均可支配收入和地理位置等,并最终反映在原保费收入、保费收入增长率、保险深度和保险密度这些衡量城市保险业竞争力和发展水平的主要客观性指标上,据此构建我国城市保险业综合竞争力评价模型,并运用此模型从实证的角度对2009年我国三线城市保险业发展水平和综合竞争力进行了测定和排序。